Three weeks after the landmark elections in Congo, we have the first complete results. As expected, the country is largely divided down the middle with the eastern side supporting transitional president, Joseph Kabila and the western side, including the bustling capital Kinshasa, surging with support for a transitional V.P. Jean-Pierre Bemba. In the national count Kabila took 45% and Bemba came in a distant second with 20%. This means that we are heading to a run-off election planned for October 29. Even though they just pulled off a massively complicated election fairly successfully, holding another one in short order is still a logistical feat. They have been planning this second election for provincial offices anyhow, but initially it seems as though few preparations are in place and the electoral commission is calling on international donors to fill a 45+ million dollar budget overrun.
Since just before the results were announced last night there has been some violence in downtown Kinshasa. It appears that a mob of Bemba’s supporters and/or militia tried to prevent the election officials from going to the TV station to announce the results. The announcement was planned for 9:00 PM Kisangani time and wasn’t made until around 11:30 PM. The director of the electoral commission, Rev. Malu-Malu, made the announcement himself on TV surrounded by bodyguards. Today it appears there was more fighting outside of Bemba’s compound and some of the high-ranking diplomatic corps as well as William Swing, the American who directs the UN mission here, were caught in the crossfire. (I saw Mr. Swing a week ago at the UN air terminal in Kinshasa and he appears to be a friendly man. He was smiling and waving at us around 7 AM, the rest of us still sleepy, before boarding a small jet with some foreign dignitaries.) The troubles in Kinshasa may linger and I am concerned about my coworkers there. They are taking wise precautions and are not in harm’s way. I am in frequent contact with them.
The run-off election gives the political process more time and it allows all of the failed candidates and their associates to align themselves with either Mr. Kabila or Mr. Bemba. This could further polarize the country and set Congo up for more strife after the next round of elections. The general feeling around town is that we can all breathe a sigh of relief since Kabila didn’t win outright on the first try and the process will continue. Of course it doesn’t help that he proclaimed this first round “a great victory” on television.
So many of the Congolese people are fatigued by war, poverty, and political trouble in their country. Yet I am told that Kinshasa has mostly seen periodic wide-scale military looting and isolated skirmishes. Seven years ago Kisangani had a week of real war followed by foreign occupation. Some even told me today in Kisangani that they hoped that Kinshasa would have a 2-3 day war so they would know what it is like and stop agitating the political process. They say that in Kinshasa people don’t know the sound and fury of heavy artillery, missles and the like. Still I cannot agree with them that the solution to violent skirmishes is all out war.
Life is calm and normal in Kisangani. We are hundreds of miles from Kinshasa and well into Kabila country. I spent some time on the phone this evening to my grandparents. This is the second time that I have been in an African nation when election results were announced and Malawi was much more turbulent in 2004 than Kisangani is tonight. I talked about Italian food with my grandmother in Arizona and had a nice talk about my planned visit in April with my grandmother in Minnesota. I talked with Grandpa George about the weather and the crops and his jigsaw puzzles. I think everyone should have a retired Minnesota farmer for a grandpa. Then when you move to a rainforest climate in the middle of Africa you can talk about the crops in the jungle.
Hey Brian!
It’s a joy reading your blog. I’m keeping you in my prayers. Peace,
Mark
Hi Brian,
Thanks for the insight on the campaign. It’s been hard to get much news about what has happened since the election. Democracy is a hard sell. The thing is, even when there is a winner, it doesn’t mean there will be unity. Just look at the US the last 20 years.
I’m still curious…Are the parties in DRC divided along tribal lines? What kind of system is it there, Parlimentary with a weak/strong Prime Minister/President or a US-style strong president with some kind of Congress? How long is the presidential term for? Is there a limit on how many terms?
Glad to hear you are in a safe place. Being in an African country at election time is not something I’d wish on someone, and you’ve done it twice now! You are a veteran.
Peace,
Jeff Blythe
Hello Jeff,
You are right about democracy. It looks good on paper but for people who have known nothing like it, they may not know how to use it. Certainly the powerful quickly figure out how to use it. Some semblance of free and diverse media also seems vital to any kind of healthy democracy and we don’t have such a press in the Congo. People are very interpersonally connected here and public political sentiments are often emotionally charged and based on rumor. Political history is very heavily veiled. The wedge issues are exceedingly simple. Is Kabila 100% Congolese or is he an invader? Did Bemba and his troops consume human flesh? Who is a strong leader (and what does that mean)? There is no shortage of tough problems and questions, but there seems to be a gap between the political realities and the technocrats that are trying to figure out a future for the Congo. I’m not about to argue for dictatorship in the Congo. Hopefully democracy will work for them in the long term, but with the current state of affiars (two leading candidates that are true enemies and well armed with their own armies) the situation could easily deteriorate in any number of directions.
There are certainly tribal issues at play. Candidates always seem to do well among their own tribe. Mobutu used folks from his tribe to rule the entire country (one of the most tribally diverse countries in Africa). People likely still expect special favor from a leader who is a member of their tribe. Hopefully the provincial assemblies and national assembly will break through some of the thick tribalism. They will no doubt be diverse and unless the president interferes with their membership, it’s hoped that these assemblies will promote unity. Bemba is from the western half of the country and Kabila’s history is a little mysterious other than we know he grew up in Tanzania (some say Rwanda). He tries to represent himself as a man for all of Congo and doesn’t publicly disclose his tribe. His children attend the American School in Kinshasa. I was talking with one of their teachers. They did an art project where the students made traditional masks and they looked up each child’s tribal designs in a book. Kabila’s daughter did not know what tribe she was from.
So on the presidential level it appears to be more of an east/west thing. The east has seen the brunt of the war and I believe they are voting for Kabila because they believe he will cement the peace. He is the one who was able to lead the peace process somehow. The people in the west see him as an invader and they believe he is in collusion with foreign governments for mineral deals that exploit Congo for his personal gain. They believe that he is propped up by Europe and the USA. Nobody knows how much of this is fact and how much is fiction.
The constitution was voted in with an overwhelming majority. Most people hadn’t ever seen or read a word of it. They didn’t use the television or the radio to explain it much. People were just voting for it as a vote against the war. If you wrote the word “peace” on a peanut butter sandwich, the people would vote for that because they were so sick of war. The constitution allows for two presidential terms of five years each. There is a Senate and a larger National Assembly. Three or four of the majority party in the Assembly will be nominated as Prime Minister by their party and the President will choose. The President is the Head of State with some executive powers (remains to be seen how this role is carried out) and the PM is the official Head of Government.
There’s a long explanation in attempt to answer your questions. I’m glad that you are interested. I’ll be glad when all of this election business is history and the Congo moves beyond its violent past.
Peace,
Brian